8.11.06

The Santa Clara 49ers?

Well, it looks like one of the more storied franchises in the NFL is going to be cutting its ties with the city that made and supports it. The San Francisco 49ers; of Joe Montana, Dwight Clark, Jerry Rice, Steve Young, Ronnie Lott and John Taylor fame are reportedly ending talks to continue the franchise in San Francisco.

This is nuts. Especially since the proposed new location is Santa Clara. I know that there is a lot of money in Santa Clara now because of the whole Web 2.0 thing, but it isn't a city I would even think about having a football team in. Smaller towns have had their hay day (think Pottsville and Green Bay, where the Packers have been the lifeline for an entire town), but a Santa Clara team just doesn't fit into the scheme of things with the New Yorks and the Dallases of the world.

There is still hope, though, that the team may find a home in Anaheim or Los Angeles. But even the thought of that move is ludicrous. Even though I am a Cowboys fan through and through, I respect the 49ers' organization, and am secretly wishing that they stay here in 'Frisco where they belong. This move will break my heart, and more importantly will negatively impact the perception of the club as a whole.

7.11.06

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2.11.06

Things Are Looking Bright for Sun

Tonight I attended a special event put on by the Churchill Club down in Santa Clara featuring Jonathan Schwartz, CEO and president of Sun Microsystems.

I haven't really dealt much with Sun personally (which is hard to believe; considering the omnipresence of Java, Solaris, Niagara etc.), but I believe it is safe to say that Sun Microsystems is in pretty good hands with Schwartz.

Communication is Key!

A big indicator for me that this man knows what he is doing is his stance on communication. According to Schwartz, his number one role as CEO is to make sure that communication within employees of Sun, with stakeholders, and even with readers of his blog is crystal clear and happens often. Of the 35,000 employees at Sun, 10% of them author some sort of blog. That is issues of leaks or scandal while he is on watch. He feels that it is very important to be open with 3,500 employees that are being encouraged to blog, generating readership and visibility for the Web site. As a well-known fact, Schwartz is a proponent of transparency; there will not be any information for his stakeholders and Board (which includes former CEO Scott McNealy).

John Markoff, the moderator for the evening from The New York Times, did not pull any punches and came out firing with questions about back-dating and the HP scandal. Without so much as a pause, Schwartz answered nearly every question very articulately, and even threw in a lot of timely quips that got some laughs from the audience.
Next Steps?

The one thing that I disagreed with tonight was Schwartz's vision for Sun in the future; how they were going to continue to gain market share and grow as a company. In response to a question from the audience asking how Sun plans to adjust their business model in light of the current trend of focusing on consumers, Schwartz reiterated the fact that there needn't be a connection to the consumer for Sun; the product isn't meant for consumers, but rather for developers. Sun intends to continue building its foundation slowly from its current core targets and moving back up from $19 billion (where it is today) to $230 billion (where is was before the bubble burst).

The problem, I feel, with this approach is that there isn't time in today's economy to build traction in the manner that Schwartz suggests. If ever there were a time to take a risk, it is now. This is the beginning of another bubble, and by skipping the consumer-focused fad, Sun could be shooting itself in the foot in the event of another burst. The number of companies and developers that use Sun's product could easily tumble, or at the very best stagnate over time. Compare the trajectory there to a near infinite amount of outlets within the world's population. I think you see my point.

That is speculation. Speculation doesn't mean anything. I do not have the extensive business background that Mr. Schwartz has. This is one of those "wait to see it pan out" type of things. One thing is for sure, though; the man knows what he is doing. He has a clear focus on the future, on what is best for Sun, and what makes the industry tick. If what I saw and heard tonight is any indication, I don't think that Sun has anything to worry about.

20.10.06

I Got the Blues

It is just like me to go on a rant about something and then use said rant target within the next few minutes. In this case: YouTube. I was watching a video that someone had sent me, and I started poking around on the site, and eventually came across this starlet: Ysabella Brave (make sure your sound is on!).


I am a big fan of Ella Fitzgerald, Billie Holiday and blues in general, and oh how refreshing it is to hear it in today's world! I am not going to lie, I haven't listened to mainstream radio in about 7 or 8 years. I just can't. There are so few good songs being played, and I dislike commercials so much that it doesn't make sense to me. But this, even though she only sings through karaoke, is exciting to hear.

I am not too well-versed in singers that are around nowadays, so if there are more people that sing from their soul so that you can actually hear their heart, please give me suggestions. One of the few pop culture figures that I feel does this well is Alicia Keys. I can feel her from the opening notes of "Fallin' ", and that makes me happy.

As I am sitting and listening to these renditions of some classic songs, it really makes me want go back in time, and see what LIFE was. Because that was "life." I don't think that what most of us choose to live today is really "life" (granted that is a result of a capitalist and consumeristic society, but that is a can of worms I won't get into tonight). I imagine sitting in a city, being able to write songs with a fraction of the distractions of today and four times the focus, interacting with people on a real level, going out to a jazz club at night and getting to sing your heart out. But who knows, I may be basing this all off of movies and TV; I find it difficult to tell the difference between that stuff and my imagination sometimes.

Looks like tonight I am going to be a-sittin' and a-tappin' to some good ole rhythm 'n' blues. And frankly, there ain't a damn thing wrong with that.

19.10.06



Mark Cuban is Right

There. I said it. He isn't entirely right in saying that GooTube will be enveloped in lawsuits, but he is correct in thinking that Google is moronic for snatching up YouTube.

Cuban isn't a stranger to dumb d
eals (Broadcast.com, anyone?) and, while I don't agree with everything he says or does, he is pretty spot-on with this one.

Before Google and YouTube made their unholy union, you may remember that YouTube signed some deals with Warner, Universal, and Sony BMG. Yeah, okay. Let's take a step back and look at this situation. Here you have YouTube, a great playground for amateur filmsters and pranksters everywhere. Free for everyone, no advertising, no restrictions and no limits. Good deal, right? Actually, yes... that is right. That is an absolutely fabulous scenario for We the People.

Unfortunately, the big boys had to come into the playground, push some people around and let their presence be known: this Web site is no longer for, about and by the People. Now, the People are once again being used as pawns in the lovely game that is internet advertising. YouTube lost the "You" right about this time. Now there is a bevy of the cor
porate-type that have the leeway to cut videos as they please, and generally dilute the entire experience. Where is the fun in that?

A similar tragedy is in the works for MySpace. As one of the first members of MySpace (2003, baby!), the change I see is sickening. There are sponsorships everywhere, fake profiles being used to push products and a lack of genuineness. I agree with Donna Bogatin of ZD Net that the marketing and advertising folk have the dollar signs in their eyes without regards to the user's experience. They are looking at the present... not the future, which is where your eyes should be focused when you're investing. How long can YouTube, established as a user-generated Web site, continue to thrive when the user will slowly be losing its voice?

Boom or Bust!

$1.65 billion isn't chump change. I don't care if it didn't make a dent in Google's wallet, it is ridiculous to think of an amount of money that makes you wonder if there are any countries worth less. For an unproven platform? Are you kidding me? I know the "Bubble 2.0" theories are tired, but you know what? There is substantial validity to them. Stocks are crazy, revenues are crazy, 20-something Internet video guys are getting enough money to buy space ships; and everyone is laughing all the way to the bank.

Eventually, that bank is going to have too many people trying to cash their Check 2.0's, and people are going to look back just like I did today ($5 billion for Broadcast.com?!?!) and think, "YouTube for $1.65 billion?!?!" or better yet, "Facebook for $1 billion?!?!" Sure, there will always be the lucky ones like Chad Hurley and Steve Chen, but as
for the rest of us: tread lightly.

18.10.06

I'm Probably Right...

Hey everyone, and welcome to my brand spankin' new blog. I've known about blogs for years, and Lord knows I have had opinions for even longer, it just came down to an issue of laziness and motivation to actually start one.

However, today I was checking out a luncheon held by the San Francisco Bay Area Publicity Club that dealt with "new media" and podcasting. David Beach of Wink.com (and also of ItsBeach.com, SwedeLife.com and DieOld.org) was one of the speakers, and he was very adamant that we all go home and start blogging. I have also been inspired by Todd Defren of SHIFT Communications and his blog, PR Squared. Put enough coals under me, and I'll get to it.

I am 100% aware of the value of blogs within a lot of circles, and I think that is the beauty of starting "I'm Probably Right." The way I see this thing panning out is with something for everyone. Because I'm in the high-tech industry, you'd better believe I am going to weigh in on what is going on here in Silicon Valley and Web 2.0 in general. And because I am from Texas, you had also better believe that there will be talk of football, and more importantly, the Dallas Cowboys and Texas Longhorns. I am a random guy (words of other people, though I am beginning to strongly believe it) and I will have random thoughts.

Basically, expect an interesting read, and FEEL FREE to leave comments! I will always respond, and I typically don't stand in the middle on any issues, so there will be plenty of opinionated arguments to be had.

With that being said, welcome to "I'm Probably Right!"